Logan Paul has almost no chance to beat Floyd Mayweather when the YouTube star squares off against one of the best boxers of the last half-century on June 6. But that hasn’t stopped more bettors from wagering on Paul to somehow pull off the massive upset in the Showtime PPV event. Yes, the Paul vs. Mayweather odds massively favor the actual boxer, but people are still finding enough value to continue putting their money on Paul.
As of this writing, Paul is a +700 underdog (win $700 on a $100 bet) on BetOnline.ag, while Mayweather is a -1500 favorite (win $100 on a $1,500 bet). But clearly the money has come in on Paul, who is 0-1 in his pro boxing career compared to Mayweather’s record of 50-0.
In late April, Mayweather was a -2000 favorite with Paul’s money line at +900. Originally, Mayweather was as much as a -5000 favorite, and Paul was +1500. But the money lines keep narrowing.
According to OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman on Tuesday, 50.2% of the bets placed on the fight have been put on Paul in the previous seven days. While only 46.6% of the wagers have been for Mayweather, that’s still 7% more from the prior week. So even though Paul is still the favorite among bettors, that enthusiasm is declining as the money lines shrink. Meanwhile, 3.3% of bettors are wagering on a draw.
“The odds are too good to pass up Paul, at least that’s what the betting data says,” Newman said. “Despite Paul seemingly having no chance to defeat one of the greatest boxers of all time, bettors continue to back him. Why? The answer seems to be simple, Mayweather isn’t worth betting on at -1600.”
Mayweather’s -1600 money line still gives him an implied chance to win of more than 94%. In reality, Mayweather has a 99.9% chance to win. But that hasn’t stopped people from believing that the taller, heavier Paul can somehow defeat Mayweather.
Even former light heavyweight titlist Jean Pascal, who will face Badou Jack on the Showtime PPV undercard, had nice things to say about the boxing neophyte.
“The reason Logan Paul has all my respect is that right now he's training with me in Puerto Rico,” Pascal told Radio Canada. “He moved his training camp to Puerto Rico. I did sparring with him and I can tell you that he impressed me. For a beginner he is very good. He is very agile. He is versatile.”