Cruella is performing about how it would have had it "disappointed" in pre-Covid times, but we can expect long legs and a Disney+ boost for the Emma Stone comedy.

The top movie on Memorial Day weekend is Paramount’s A Quiet Place part II, which is going to score the biggest opening weekend since Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog and Sony’s Bad Boys for Life in very early 2020. One cruel irony of the pandemic affecting the 2020 season as it did is that last year was supposed to be the year where the “other” studios challenged Disney’s pop culture theatrical dominance. After all, Warner Bros, Universal, Paramount and Sony had somewhat held back their biggest biggies until after Disney’s fire sale (Avengers 4, Star Wars 9, Frozen 2, Maleficent 2, Toy Story 4, Dumbo, Captain Marvel, Lion King, Aladdin, etc.).

The thinking was let Disney have their “going away party” for Bob Iger (who was rumored to be stepping down in 2020), the likes of No Time to Die, Wonder Woman 1984, F9 and A Quiet Place 2 would allow the rest of the industry to assert themselves alongside Disney’s “good but not great” line-up (Mulan, Black Widow, Jungle Cruise, etc.). Not only did Hollywood’s theatrical plans get scuttled by Covid, but the “if you leave the house you might die” new normal gave a huge advantage to Disney’s new streaming service, providing a steady supply of “big movies from 2019” along with a few “not putting this into theaters in 2020” offerings.

Anyway, I bring up this skewed context to note that Walt Disney’s Cruella is not the top movie of the weekend, having earned an okay $7.7 million on Friday for a likely over/under $20 million Fri-Sun debut and over/under $26 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend frame. That’s not to say that Disney is going to fall into a pit of doom this year, as Black Widow, Jungle Cruise and Encanto says otherwise. However, we’ll see if what was expected in 2020 (rival studios debunking the notion of Disney’s permanent dominance) comes to pass now that the theatrical studios are on a more even playing ground.

Emma Stone’s “origin story for Cruella de Vil” flick was never going to pull Aladdin or even Maleficent business. To the extent that it’s opening lower than even Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33.5 million over this weekend in 2016) may be partially about the new normal and partially about the film being available to lease for $30 on Disney+. More importantly, with decent reviews, a PG-13 rating (for a movie that might have nabbed a G in the 1990’s) and a narrative emphasizing fashion and music over action and romance, an over/under $26 million launch for Cruella might well have been what was expected even in normal times.

Yes, the Disney+ variable took a few bucks out of the piggy bank, as did Paramount suddenly shifting A Quiet Place part II from Labor Day 2021 to Memorial Day 2021. That said, the film only cost around $100 million (most of which is absolutely on the screen, natch). Moreover, while Twitter spent Friday posting out-of-context sequences and mocking and entirely misinterpreting scenes that were supposed to be a little silly in the first place, folks who bought a ticket and watched the whole damn movie gave it an A Cinemascore grade. Point being, Disney is hoping for a leggy run between now and Black Widow on July 9.

I’m inclined to consider Cruella to be another “successful disappointment.” The film (which is pretty enjoyable) is playing about on par with how it might have had it disappointed in non-Covid times. Now the robust launch of A Quiet Place part II means that such a designation might not be an alibi for much longer, but for now Cruella belongs alongside Spiral, Tom & Jerry and Mortal Kombat. Right now far more adults are vaccinated then kids, so films playing mostly to the kids may have a disadvantage compared to adult-skewing biggies. Hence Cruella and Boss Baby 2 being offered concurrently in theaters and on (respectively) Disney+ and Peacock.