Maxine Clark, the founder of Build-A-Bear and former President of Payless ShoeSource aamong many other things, told me recently, “This may be the best time for retail in 25 years.” She is not alone in her judgment. Every expert I spoke with agreed and I found none who disagreed.
Steve Sadove, former CEO of Saks, former CEO of Clairol, former senior executive at Kraft General Foods
This is not just a good feeling, there’s data to back it up. A company called Springboard, that collects and sells data on retail activity, recently completed a survey of US consumers. Their data indicate that 88% of consumers are now comfortable to at least some degree in making trips to retail destinations. And it’s not theoretical. 45% of consumers intend to visit a shopping destination over the Memorial Day weekend.
You might say that if consumers are comfortable heading to stores, it may mean that the online sales will stop growing or decline. But that’s not what we’re seeing. Todd Kahn, CEO and Brand President of Coach, told me that their online business “has been an ‘and’ and not an ‘or.’” Where their stores have been open for a while, such as in Texas, “we are not seeing a diminution of digital sales in those areas,” he said. Consumers returning to stores don’t seem to be reducing their online shopping, online continues to perform even as the stores improve.
It’s not just short-term thinking either. Deirdre Quinn, CEO and Co-Founder of fashion brand Lafayette 148, told me the products consumers are buying indicate excitement and not pessimism. “Strong colors, great prints ... luxe fabrics,” she said. Lafayette 148 is planning new store leases in Soho (New York), Toronto, Beverly Hills, Palm Beach and Houston and actively searching for more. With so much retail space available, now is one of the best times ever to get great deals on new retail store space for retailers able to expand. They are also seeing increased traffic in their existing stores while simultaneously growing with a digital clientelling app.
Sadove says, “For those who navigate the changes well, the outlook is bright.” But to be clear, the opposite is also true: Companies that don’t adapt will wither and die. And another word of caution: if a retailer or brand performs well in 2021 (and likely in 2022), it doesn’t mean their growth is assured, performing well when the tide is rising is nice but it doesn’t mean a company will make it when the environment gets weaker. Sadove says the new normal “will include a deeper understanding of the consumer, new forms of retail such as resale and rental and an increase focus on sustainability and diversity.” That’s a lot of changes to deal with for any company and not everyone who succeeds in 2021 will be able to refashion themselves as they need. With so much to transform, the only way retailers and brands will be successful is if they are willing to make hard decisions, like letting go of the people who can’t move forward even if they have done good work in the past.
Maybe, as they say on Wall Street, “the crowd is wrong” and this won’t prove to be a great time for retail. But if the crowd is right, a lot of retailers have a great opportunity in front of them now and for the foreseeable future. All indications are that retail sales this weekend will be great and they will take off from there. Being able to succeed this weekend and beyond may not mean that a retailer is above the pack because the environment is so good, but companies that don’t do well starting right now are in for a world of trouble. Now can be great if brands and retailers give consumers what they want without regard to what they wanted in the past.