Topline

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday moved to hold a vote on a House-passed bill to create an independent commission to probe the Jan. 6 attack – though Democrats appear far short of the necessary Republican votes to avoid it being blocked.

Key Facts

Schumer said his cloture motion sets up a “potential vote this week,” though he noted Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are the only Republicans who have said they’ll vote for it so far.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), a member of Senate Democratic leadership, told Forbes “it doesn’t appear that there are enough votes” to pass it.

But Schumer has previously said he wants a vote regardless of whether it’s slated to pass to “see where every member stands: on the side of truth, or on the side of Donald Trump’s Big Lie.”

If Republicans vote to block the commission, it would be their first official filibuster of the 117th Congress.

Big Number

10. That’s the number of Republican votes Democrats would need to overcome the filibuster. Over half of the Senate’s 50 Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have ruled out voting for the commission, though around a dozen have said they are undecided.

Crucial Quote

“We implore our Senate Republican colleagues to work with us to find a path forward on a commission to examine the events of January 6th,” Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), two of the most steadfast Democratic opponents of eliminating the filibuster, said in a joint statement on Tuesday.

Tangent

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has been pitching colleagues on an amendment that would ameliorate GOP concerns about partisan control of commission staff. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters Collins has “got some good ideas,” but, asked if the amendment would change his mind on opposing the commission, said, “I don’t think so.”

What To Watch For

If the bill is filibustered, it could spark renewed debate among Senate Democrats about the possibility of doing away with the filibuster or making it harder to use. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin said Monday Republicans have been “careful to not have any major confrontations” on the filibuster this session, but that “inevitably, as we get into the more difficult issues, we're gonna have to face it."