This week, we’re taking at early look at the Cy Young Award races in both leagues. Earlier this week, we covered the AL, led by the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole, with the A’s Chris Bassitt in closest pursuit. Today, it’s the NL’s turn.

There has been no shortage of great pitching performances in the senior circuit this season. The top two hurlers in the circuit have easily eclipsed Cole’s efforts to date, and #3 would be nipping at his heels. The complete primary and secondary contender tiers are roughly twice as large as the AL’s, but the gap between the field and the two guys at the top is large.

A quick reminder as to the methodology being used here. The league average production for each exit speed/launch angle “bucket” was applied to every batted ball allowed by each ERA qualifier, resulting in their Adjusted Contact Score (100 equals league average, the lower the number the better). Then the Ks and BBs are added back to the equation resulting in each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, my proxy for ERA-/FIP- (again, 100 equals average, the lower number the better). Finally, each pitcher’s “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average is calculated by extrapolating the runs saved across total number of innings pitched.

As a frame of reference, the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler led AL hurlers with a 73 Adjusted Contact Score in 2020 (fractionally besting the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff, whose mark also rounded to 73), while then-Red Trevor Bauer led all of baseball with a 51 “Tru” ERA- and 17.8 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average. Let’s get to the six NL hurlers with over 10.0 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average this season:

#1 - RHP Jacob deGrom (Mets) - 28 “Tru” ERA-, 57 Adj. Contact Score, 18.3 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average - Where does one even begin? Pitching can roughly be broken down into three disciplines - missing bats, minimizing walks, and managing contact. deGrom is beyond elite at all three, leading NL ERA qualifiers with a 45.4% K rate and a 57 Adjusted Contact Score, and running a close 2nd in BB rate at 3.9%. The first two numbers are the best marks I’ve ever seen from an ERA qualifier. He’s only pitched 58 innings, so he’s “only” 18.3 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average to date.

He’s seemingly a freak of nature. His average four-seam fastball velocity has risen each year since 2016, and currently stands at an insane 99.1 mph this season. It’s not merely empty velocity, either. He has routinely missed bats and muted contact with it throughout his career. If you’re fortunate enough to put it in play, you’re likely to pop it up - only Freddy Peralta has a higher pop up rate among NL qualifiers. The pitch received the rare and coveted ‘A+’ grade in my annual pitch evaluation series last offseason.

2 - RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers) - 32 “Tru” ERA-, 62 Adj. C Score, 17.7 “Tru” Runs - Technically, at this exact moment, Burnes is not an ERA qualifier, as he has pitched 59 1/3 innings and his team has played 61 games. He’s healthy now, and should get well beyond the threshold in quick order.

He’s giving deGrom a run for his money in every major pitching category, leading him in BB rate (3.1%) and running a close 2nd in K rate (42.1%) and Adjusted Contact Score (62). His 94/7 K/BB ratio is a spitting image of deGrom’s 93/8 mark. After struggling with the gopher ball early in his MLB career, he has grown to throttle all types of contact. His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 60 ranks 4th among NL qualifiers - deGrom leads at 47.

Burnes’ cutter is simply lethal. Its average velocity of 95.3 mph is nearly as high as his four-seamer’s average mark of 96.7 mph. Durability is the only question mark left. Can he keep this up over 162 innings? If he can, this Brewer club may be going places.

#3 RHP Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) - 58 “Tru” ERA-, 78 Adj. C Score, 14.0 “Tru” Runs - About those Brewers......in a normal year, this is what a Cy Young performance looks like. While the rest of baseball runs away from their fastball, this guy keeps throwing over it 60% of the time and dominating.

Like deGrom, Woodruff received an ‘A+’ four-seam fastball grade last season. Like Burnes, he lacks a go-to pop up or grounder tendency, but he muffles contact authority. His 51 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is running a close third in the NL in 2021, with deGrom’s 47 mark in the lead.

While Burnes’ star is shining a bit more brightly at present, Woodruff is more of a known and proven commodity. His numbers WILL be there at season’s end - Burnes’ COULD be. This guy is at the beginning of what should be a long and productive peak period. At some moment in time very soon, he will be recognized as the game’s best all-around starting pitcher.

#4 - RHP Zack Wheeler (Phillies) - 64 “Tru” ERA-, 86 Adj. C Score, 13.0 “Tru” Pitching Runs - Surprised? Don’t be. Wheeler was the 2020 Contact Manager of the Year, and while his numbers are slightly down (but still really good) in that department, he’ gotten his strikeout groove back again. He’s clearly overtaken Aaron Nola as the Phils’ staff ace, and has the durability and diverse skill set to make a real run at a Cy in the near to intermediate term.

#5 - RHP Kevin Gausman (Giants) - 67 “Tru” ERA-, 91 Adj. C Score, 11.2 “Tru” Pitching Runs - Now, Gausman has been great, but he has also been lucky. His UNADJUSTED Contact Score of 52, based on actual results allowed, is way lower than his adjusted mark. Historically, he’s been a strong K/BB guy with mediocre contact management ability; while I’m buying some of his improvement and he should be in line for a hefty free agent payday, I would expect some regression as the season continues.

#6 - RHP Yu Darvish (Padres) - 67 “Tru” ERA-, 85 Adj. C Score, 10.4 “Tru” Pitching Runs - Darvish has been close to the same guy as a Padre as he was the Cubs last season. His K (29.5%) and BB (6.0%) rates have regressed just a tad, and his contact management performance (86 Adjusted Contact Score in 2020, 85 in 2021) has been essentially the same. He’s been getting it done in a much different way, however, as his fly ball rate has gone from under 30% in 2020 to the mid-40s in 2021.

THE NEXT TIER: Seven more NL pitchers have logged between 8-10 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average so far: the Dodgers’ Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias, Padres’ Joe Musgrove, Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara, Nationals’ Max Scherzer and Brewers’ Freddy Peralta.

Some pitchers that you may have expected to see on that list, like the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, and the Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty, have been quite fortunate on balls in play.

CONTACT MANAGER OF THE YEAR RACE: In ascending Adjusted Contact Score order, here are the top five NL contact managers so far:

1 - deGrom - 57

2 - Burnes - 62

3T- Jon Gray - 70

3T- Alcantara - 70

5 - Woodruff - 78

Unlike the AL, where the top contact managers largely aren’t among the top overall performers, it’s the elite all-around hurlers at the top of the NL contact management list.

We’ve discussed deGrom, Burnes and Woodruff. Alcantara has a strong grounder tendency and his 63 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score ranks among the league’s best. Gray was finally showing signs of life before recently landing on the injured list. His grounder rate shot up from the mid-thirties to over 50% this season, and his 49 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score currently ranks 2nd best behind deGrom.