Shooting regresses. Not always, but the general assumption is that shooting performance outliers eventually come back to the mean. A hot game or two is not likely to last very long and the playoff heroics of those role players ultimately lead to them, once again, becoming pumpkins. The thing is...each game matters dramatically more during this time of the year. A couple of games of “NBA Jam” level heaters can be enough to swing a series.

The Hawks come into this game against the New York Knicks looking to rebound after a poor shooting performance on Wednesday night where they shot 27 percent from 3-point range. They were an above average team during the regular season and obviously have one of the scariest shooters in the league in Trae Young. The importance of Young is well known, but dissecting which shooter besides him is the most important to the team is an interesting and different question. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic 

Bogdanovic’s importance to the Hawks is well known. His return from his injury, along with Nate McMillan becoming head coach, helped spearhead the Hawks’ run to the 5 seed. He might be asked to do more playmaking Friday night since Atlanta lost momentum when both Bogdanovic and Young were sitting late in the 3rd and early in the 4th quarter — that run by New York led the TNT announcer Jim Jackson to question McMillan’s game management. Reporters asked the Atlanta coach about it after the game:

“That’s our normal rotation,” McMillan said. “Trae normally comes back in that eight-, nine-minute mark. Again, Trae played 35 minutes. It’s a two-, three-possession game. About 10 minutes to go on the clock. You got to give your bench some time to try to get something going.”

Whether they stagger the minutes or not the value of Bogdanovic bombing away from deep is that he is able to do some on catch-and-shoot opportunities along with being able to create for himself. That dual ability is so valuable to second units, especially if McMillian continues to hold true to his minutes limit for Young. 

Bogdanovic being hot from deep has been instrumental for the success of Atlanta this season. When he drilled four or more 3-pointers the team was 15-7 during the regular season, which would have tied the Philadelphia 76ers for the best record in the Eastern Conference. His shooting can create chaos for the defense, which happened to the Knicks on Wednesday night.

Bogdanovic was closely contested by Reggie Bullock who played great defense after getting screened by Clint Capela. The interesting thing to note is Derrick Rose shows out on Bogdanovic, even though he doesn’t fully contest. The 28-year-old has the respect of the Knicks and him draining shots may prevent help defenders from straying too far away from him when he’s stationed along the 3-point arc. 

Danilo Gallinari

The wily veteran put up a dreadful performance against his former team on Wednesday. His shot was clunky as he was only able to hit two of his nine 3-pointers, which is his worst statistical shooting performance during the 2020-21 season. His production is so vital because his most important minutes of the game came when he was the main cog of the offense during that period of time in which both Bogdanovic and Young sat. He hit one of his four 3-point attempts during that time, but also missed a shot just a minute before their two best players sat. 

The Hawks rotation might ultimately look a bit different, especially if John Collins is able to stay out of foul trouble. But the issue is that Gallinari may very well have to prop up the 2nd unit and he’ll have to be more judicious in his shot selection if doing so.

He makes a smart move in trying to get Obi Toppin to jump off of his pump fake. Once he stood his ground Gallinari should have looked to drive the ball to draw help, or kick it out back to Kevin Huerter to see if he could drum something up with plenty of time still left on the shot clock. 

Gallinari is a far better shooter than what he has shown thus far in the playoffs and it is his marksmanship that can help make those Trae Young-less minutes easier to survive. 

Winner: Bogdanovic 

Gallinari’s minutes carry so much weight when Young is on the bench, but Bogdanovic brings a dimension to the Hawks’ offense that can set them apart from the Knicks. The significance of Gallinari’s minutes can be mitigated with the added use of Collins while Bogdanovic will ultimately play large minutes whether he is stroking it from deep or not.