Regan (Millicent Simmonds), left, and Evelyn (Emily Blunt) brave the unknown in "A Quiet Place Part II.”
© 2019 Paramount Pictures. All rights reserved.I’m writing about nationwide Thursday preview grosses for two major big-deal studio releases since, I dunno, MLK weekend in 2020 (Bad Boys for Life and Dolittle)?. Not only are Paramount’s A Quiet Place part II and Cruella both reporting Thursday grosses, but all of my local theaters are (for the first time since March 2020) not only open but open all day (not just from around 4 pm until around 10 pm). While the circumstances have changed in terms of guestimating opening weekend grosses by virtue of Thursday preview screenings, there is still math to be done.
Cruella earned $1.4 million in Thursday previews last night, which could mean a debut between $25 million and $45 million over the Mon-Fri Memorial Day weekend. A Quiet Place part II earned whopping $4.8 million last night. That’s actually bigger (sans inflation) than the $4.3 million Thursday preview gross for A Quiet Place in April of 2018. John Krasinski and Emily Blunt’s acclaimed and buzzy horror original opened with a whopping $50 million over its Fri-Sun debut, legging out to $188 million domestic (the biggest live-action original since Chris Nolan’s Interstellar in late 2014) and $338 million worldwide on a $17 million budget.
That this over/under $35 million sequel opened with even bigger Thursday grosses during a situation still defined by the pandemic (capacity limitations and around 40% of theaters still closed) is damn-well remarkable. Does this mean that A Quiet Place part II, again directed by Krasinski and still starring Blunt, will equal or surpass its predecessor on opening weekend? Well, maybe? Look, it’s a sequel and a sequel was almost always going to be frontloaded compared to its predecessor. That said, Covid variables may indeed cause the weekend “want to see” crowd to spread out their moviegoing accordingly. This could go “either way.”
That said, It Chapter Two earned less in its Thursday preview ($10.5 million) than the previous It ($13.5 million), leading to an opening weekend 26% smaller ($91 million) than the first flick ($123 million). Likewise, even much-hyped sequels to well-liked originals (The Last Jedi, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Deadpool 2, etc.) can and do open smaller than their predecessors even with strong reviews and decent buzz. That A Quiet Place part II (also benefiting from strong reviews and solid buzz) topped its predecessor’s Thursday preview gross in the middle of a pandemic means that I’m inclined to be optimistic until the Friday numbers roll in.
Even if it plays like Brightburn (the last horror movie to open on Memorial Day) in terms of legs ($9.6 million Fri-Mon from a $950,000 Thursday) or even X-Men: Apocalypse ($80 million from an $8.2 million Thursday), we’re still looking at a $50 million Fri-Mon debut. That would be on the lower side of where it was tracking for its Fri-Sun debut back when it was supposed to open on March 20, 2021. If it plays like Aladdin ($7 million Thursday for a $117 million Fri-Mon debut in 2019), we’re still looking at $80 million over the holiday, which under normal circumstances would be more than plausible.
We’ll know when we know, but a sequel opening with bigger Thursday grosses than its predecessor, even with everything otherwise working in its favor, in this environment is pretty damn promising. And unlike Cruella, you can only see A Quiet Place part II in theaters (at least for the first 1.5 months). We’ve seen Godzilla Vs. Kong and Wrath of Man play to “business as usual” box office. We’ve seen Mortal Kombat and Tom & Jerry play as “successful disappointments,” earning about what they would have had they stumbled in non-Covid times. I’m now inclined to expect “business as usual” for A Quiet Place part II. As Rachel Maddow likes to say, watch this space.
