Some of Asia’s biggest names are fighting to keep their Qatar 2022 dreams alive this June as the second round of World Cup qualifiers comes to a head.

The second round of the Asian Football Confederation’s World Cup qualifying has been heavily hit by Covid-19. It should have already been wrapped up last year, but postponements have led to a double round of matches played at centralized venues this June as the AFC tries to get its schedule back on track.

Covid-19 has thrown another spanner in the works, as it led North Korea to decide to pull out of qualifying.

FIFA decided on Thursday to expunge North Korea’s current results, and as North Korea’s group would have one fewer team, the results of matches played against the fifth-place team in each of the other groups will not count when it comes to determining the best-placed runners-up in each group, turning the runners-up order upside-down.

Within Group H, North Korea’s withdrawal has hurt Turkmenistan, who see their strong results against the North wiped out. They now drop from top of the group down to third behind South Korea and Lebanon.

Impact On Runners-Up

But both South Korea and Lebanon benefit from the changes to how the runners-up are ranked, as they both dropped points against North Korea, whereas other teams will generally lose the six easy points they picked up against the weakest sides in their respective groups.

As Qatar have guaranteed that they will finish in the top two spots in their group, the five best-placed runners-up out of the eight groups will advance along with the group winners to the third round.

Working out the best second-place teams right now is a mathematical nightmare as the bottom-place teams in some groups could still change and all the teams have played a different number of matches. Uzbekistan, who are currently second in Group D, could for example, have their fate determined by the result of the match between fourth and fifth place Yemen and Palestine on June 15.

China v Philippines (June 9)

A defeat to Syria and draw with the Philippines puts China in a precarious position. They are currently among the three runners-up who would miss out on a spot in the third round. China’s strong goal difference means a win over the Philippines should be enough, even if they lose again to Syria, but a draw might see them miss out, while a Philippines win could see the Azkals leapfrog China and clinch a third-round spot themselves.

China have only appeared at the World Cup once, and for this campaign, they naturalized some of the Chinese Super League’s biggest Brazilian stars like Elkeson to boost their chances.

Bahrain v Iran (June 7)

China have home advantage as they will host all of Group A’s games in Suzhou. In normal circumstances, Iran would also have had home advantage as they look to save their World Cup campaign. The team that looked so impressive under Carlos Quieroz in qualification for the 2018 World Cup didn’t hit the same levels under his replacement Marc Wilmots, losing on the road to both Bahrain and Iraq, leaving them in third place in Group C. Wilmots has since resigned over a pay dispute and was replaced by Croatian manager Dragan Skocic.

Rather than having the roaring crowds of the Azadi Stadium in Tehran to cheer them on, Iran will play their final group games in Bahrain. Iran have a game in hand above the two teams above them, but their game in hand over Bahrain is against Iraq, and their game in hand over Iraq is against Bahrain so their key fixture will be the match against Bahrain on June 7.

Kuwait v Jordan (June 11)

Australia have maximum points so far, but also miss out on several home games as Group B’s matches will be played in Kuwait, who are level on points with Jordan in second and third. That home advantage could give Kuwait the edge they need to reach the third round, but Jordan should be well prepared, having played ten international matches since the start of the pandemic.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in Group F are currently behind teams in other groups when it comes to the race for the best-placed runners-up, but with Mongolia already guaranteed to finish bottom, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan could have an advantage as they both have a match against Myanmar still to play. Due to the political situation, the Myanmar team has been weakened as many players have boycotted the trip to Japan for the final Group F matches, which could help the two Central Asian sides.

Group G is the most open group with four teams still having a realistic chance of reaching the third round. Vietnam currently head the group, but the United Arab Emirates, who are hosting the group’s final games, could jump from fourth to second if they win their game in hand.

The eight group winners except for Qatar, and the five best-placed runners-up will enter the third round of the AFC’s World Cup qualification, which will begin in September 2021.